Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

BACKGROUND: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. METHODS: Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. RESULTS: Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. CONCLUSION: The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.

The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa.

In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government. By the end of the first wave, the NCEM had developed into a stochastic, spatially-explicit compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 across the 52 districts of South Africa. The model adopted a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed structure that accounted for the clinical profile of SARS-COV-2 (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and avenues of treatment access (outpatient, and hospitalisation in non-ICU and ICU wards). Between end-March and early September 2020, the model was updated 11 times with four key releases to generate new sets of projections and scenario analyses to be shared with planners in the national and provincial Departments of Health, the National Treasury and other partners. Updates to model structure included finer spatial granularity, limited access to treatment, and the inclusion of behavioural heterogeneity in relation to the adoption of Public Health and Social Measures. These updates were made in response to local data and knowledge and the changing needs of the planners. The NCEM attempted to incorporate a high level of local data to contextualise the model appropriately to address South Africa's population and health system characteristics that played a vital role in producing and updating estimates of resource needs, demonstrating the importance of harnessing and developing local modelling capacity.

Crowdsourcing to identify social innovation initiatives in health in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Crowdsourcing is a distributed problem-solving and production mechanism that leverages the collective intelligence of non-expert individuals and networked communities for specific goals. Social innovation (SI) initiatives aim to address health challenges in a sustainable manner, with a potential to strengthen health systems. They are developed by actors from different backgrounds and disciplines. This paper describes the application of crowdsourcing as a research method to explore SI initiatives in health. METHODS: The study explored crowdsourcing as a method to identify SI initiatives implemented in Africa, Asia and Latin America. While crowdsourcing has been used in high-income country settings, there is limited knowledge on its use, benefits and challenges in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. From 2014 to 2018, six crowdsourcing contests were conducted at global, regional and national levels. RESULTS: A total of 305 eligible projects were identified; of these 38 SI initiatives in health were identified. We describe the process used to perform a crowdsourcing contest for SI, the outcome of the contests, and the challenges and opportunities when using this mechanism in LMICs. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that crowdsourcing is a participatory method, that is able to identify bottom-up or grassroots SI initiatives developed by non-traditional actors.

The patient encounter index: a novel method of measuring clinical workload in a paediatric cardiology service.

Technological advances have led to better patient outcomes and the expansion of clinical services in paediatric cardiology. This expansion creates an ever-growing workload for clinicians, which has led to workflow and staffing issues that need to be addressed. The objective of this study was the development of a novel tool to measure the clinical workload of a paediatric cardiology service in Cape Town, South Africa: The patient encounter index is a tool designed to quantify clinical workload. It is defined as a ratio of the measured duration of clinical work to the total time available for such work. This index was implemented as part of a prospective cross-sectional study design. Clinical workload data were collected over a 10-day period using time-and-motion sampling. Clinicians were contractually expected to spend 50% of their daily workload on patient care. The median patient encounter index for the Western Cape Paediatric Cardiac Service was 0.81 (range 0.19-1.09), reflecting that 81% of total contractual working time was spent on clinical activities. This study describes the development and implementation of a novel tool for clinical workload quantification and describes its application to a busy paediatric cardiology service in Cape Town, South Africa. This tool prospectively quantifies clinical workload which may directly influence patient outcomes. Implementation of this novel tool in the described setting clearly demonstrated the excessive workload of the clinical service and facilitated effective motivation for improved allocation of resources.